New Missouri Rising Action Poll Shows Hawley Leading McCaskill 52% to 44%, Launches New Turnout Initiative
Pro-Josh Hawley Super PAC Releases New Poll, Launches $1 Million Grassroots Turnout Initiative
JEFFERSON CITY - Today, Missouri Rising Action released the results of a new poll conducted by Jim McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, showing Josh Hawley now leading Claire McCaskill by a margin of 52% to 44%. This new data represents a significant shift from Missouri Rising Action's last poll in June, which showed McCaskill leading Hawley 46%-42%.
Missouri Rising Action's new poll, conducted from September 29th to October 2nd, shows McCaskill’s favorability upside-down – 42% favorable to 51% unfavorable, while Hawley is right-side-up – 41% to 33%. Republicans have rallied around Hawley, supporting the Attorney General 95% to 3% (was 84% to 8% in previous poll), while Democrats back McCaskill 89% to 8% (down from June when it was 94% to 3%). A key difference is among Independents, among whom Hawley is leading 51% to 39%. In June, Hawley was winning Independents by a narrow margin, 39% to 38%. Republicans now lead on the generic ballot by a 52% to 41% margin.
"These fresh numbers indicate that Josh Hawley is gaining momentum at exactly the right time as Missouri voters tune into this important race," said Brian Rogers, Executive Director of Missouri Rising Action. "The Democrats' hysterical attacks on Judge Kavanaugh have hurt Democrats like Claire McCaskill whose states voted decisively for President Trump in 2016. This will be a tight race, but Missourians are now more ready than ever to replace Claire McCaskill with a senator who will represent their values and interests in Washington - Josh Hawley."
Missouri Rising Action also today announces a new $1 million grassroots initiative is focused on turning out voters to help Josh Hawley beat Claire McCaskill this November. The initiative will launch next week, and run thought the final hours of voting on November 6th.
Missouri Rising Action has partnered with leading data analytics firm WPAi to model the Missouri electorate and focus this seven-figure campaign on turning key voter segments on Election Day. This will be a close race, and WPAi has identified the exact voters that Missouri Rising Action needs to contact and persuade to help finally retire McCaskill.
Based on WPAi's data, Missouri Rising Action will be using customized messages to target these specific voters through digital advertising, direct mail, and turnout texting and phone calls to ensure they come out on Election Day.
Conducted by McLaughlin & Associates September 29 to October 2
600 sample +/- 4.0% margin of error
59% landline/41% mobile phone interviews
Party affiliation 36% GOP, 34% Dem & 30% Independent/Other